5 Things Business Owners Assumed About 2026 That the Data Doesn't Support
Every year comes with a set of assumptions about what's going to be hard. This year, several of those assumptions haven't held up against what business owners are actually reporting. Here are five, drawn from Fora Financial's 2026 Annual Business Insights Report and Mid-Year Pulse Check.
1. "Tariffs are the big story of 2026."
Tariffs got the headlines. The data tells a different story. 73% of business owners said tariffs affected their operations over the past 12 months, a real and meaningful impact. But since January, only 11% say tariffs specifically have grown more challenging, far behind the 42% who point to inflation and the 57% who point to cash flow. Whatever the tariff shock was, it isn't the pressure that's been accelerating through the first half of the year.
2. "Inflation is the top challenge facing small businesses."
Inflation is a real and persistent pressure, cited by 42% of business owners as a growing challenge since January. But it's not the top challenge. Cash flow is, at 57%, and it's the one pressure that's intensified rather than eased across the year.
3. "Business owners expecting a recession are pulling back."
60% of business owners think a recession before year end is at least possible. Only 6% say they're actively pulling back their plans because of it. 68% are still moving forward, and 70% feel confident about finishing the year strong. Expecting a downturn and preparing to weather one, it turns out, isn't the same as retreating.
4. "Small businesses that don't use AI are behind."
The most common reason business owners give for not using AI, cited by 35%, is a straightforward belief that their business doesn't need it. Cost and complexity, not resistance to the idea, are the next most common barriers. Not using AI yet isn't automatically a sign of falling behind, though the data does show a real link between AI adoption and revenue growth expectations.
5. "Demand has been weak this year."
45% of business owners report strengthening customer demand over the past six months, more than double the 22% reporting a decline. The pressure business owners are feeling this year is concentrated in cash flow and cost management, not a lack of customers.
If any of these five assumptions shaped how you planned for this year, it's worth revisiting the plan against what business owners are actually reporting, not what the headlines assumed going in.
Findings are drawn from Fora Financial's 2026 Annual Business Insights Report (fielded February-March 2026) and 2026 Mid-Year Pulse Check (fielded late June-mid-July 2026, over 300 U.S. business owners).
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